Compound extreme events related to water and coping capacity: a spatial analysis in Campina Grande/PB

Abstract

Climate change contributes to greater variability and intensity in the occurrence of compound extreme events related to water (droughts and rains). The main objective of this study is to spatially analyze the adaptive capacity to compound extreme events in the city of Campina Grande, Paraíba-Brazil, which has a high frequency of water shortages and floods. The spatial analysis was carried out from an urban resilience perspective. To this end, two main approaches were applied: i) susceptibility (spatial) to multiple extreme events and ii) social vulnerability index (spatial). Initially, two previous models developed for the risk of water shortages and susceptibility to flooding in the city were combined. The most critical areas of both models are related and analyzed with a Social Vulnerability Index, in order to assess the adaptive capacity, necessary for building urban resilience, indicating the most critical areas where adaptive capacity leads to greater urban resilience . The results indicate that greater susceptibility to extreme events and greater social vulnerabilities generate a more significant exposure to the impacts of hazards, that is, areas with unfavorable hydraulic and socioeconomic criteria, such as the lack of urban drainage infrastructure and low reserve capacity associated with low household incomes and high demographic densities. These findings reveal how a low adaptive capacity needs greater attention to public policies and mitigating actions to increase resilience through better planning, management, infrastructure improvements and monitoring actions.